AI brief · 30 May
Risk-on tape; breadth firm. Memory / HBM crossed confirmation overnight — three laggards now flagged. New high-conviction Core buy in MP on a fresh export-control catalyst. AAOI downgraded to sell as the optical trade looks crowded and sentiment rolled over. One kill-criteria breach to review. Net exposure tilt: constructive, concentrated in power materials and optical.
New calls
7
Hit rate · 90d
31%
Paper YTD
+18.4%
Alpha vs SPY
+6.1%
Calibration
0.18
Max DD
−9.2%
Conviction movers
New buys
MPbuy+0.21
ONTObuy+0.14
Downgrades
AAOIsell−0.19
LWLGhold−0.11
Kill-criteria
AAOIsentiment rolled
1 thesis to review
Conviction book
| Ticker | Call | Conv | Conf | Δ1d | 30d exp | Theme | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COHR Coherent | buy | 0.81 | 74 | +.04 | +11% | optical | Jun 12 · earnings |
| MP MP Materials | buy | 0.77 | 69 | +.21 | +14% | rare earth | Jun 4 · investor day |
| ONTO Onto Innov. | buy | 0.72 | 66 | +.14 | +9% | metrology | Jun 2 · earnings |
| FIX Comfort Sys. | buy | 0.68 | 64 | — | +7% | DC labour | — |
| SNDK SanDisk | hold | 0.55 | 55 | −.06 | +3% | memory | Jun 18 · earnings |
| AAOI Applied Opto. | sell | 0.31 | 38 | −.19 | −8% | optical | crowded |
Regime
Risk-on
breadth firm · spreads tight · sizing 100%
Smart-money flow
MP — cluster insider buy, CFO + 2 dirs
Form 4 · 2d lag · rep score 0.71
ONTO — 13D activist position opened
SC 13D · 9d lag
COHR — short interest −2.1pp
FINRA · bi-monthly
FIX — unusual call volume, EOD
options · end-of-day only
Themes inflecting
Memory / HBMconfirming · 78
Rare-earth supplyconfirming · 71
Quantum computingemerging · 41
Liquid coolingwatch · 28
Catalysts
ONTO · earningsJun 2
FOMC minutesJun 5
MP · investor dayJun 4
Russell rebalanceJun 6
COHR · earningsJun 12
Today's debates
Book exposure
Optical34%
Rare earth22%
Metrology18%
DC labour14%
Net beta0.71
Top-5 concentration62%
Theme laggards
WDCflat vs theme +14% · adjacency strong
AMKR+3% · packaging derivative
SIMO−1% · controller exposure
rotation candidates3 →
Signal monitor
Export-control catalyst0.11
Insider cluster buys0.09
Estimate revisions0.08
Social velocitywatch
Options flow (EOD)0.03
Macro inputs
Market breadth68% > 50d
Credit spreads (HY)tight · 312bp
2s10s curve+38bp
Volatility (VIX)17.4 · normal
Circuit breakeroff · sizing 100%
Recently resolved
CLF catalyst+19% win
IDCC licensing+8% win
ERII variance−6% loss
BELFB signal retired−11% loss
Data health
SEC EDGARfresh
FINRA short interest3d
Prices · 2 sourcesreconciled
GDELT news41m
Estimate feedstale 2d
Research output, not financial advice. SiftUp surfaces and explains; it does not execute trades. © 2026 SiftUp.